Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 23.479787 25.806056 28.423295 31.621636 35.475476 40.038753 45.961345
2025-01-26 20.104395 23.087168 26.717087 31.583981 38.152365 47.074599 60.877313
2025-02-02 17.927782 21.265535 25.577658 31.811453 41.105632 55.530035 82.666076
2025-02-09 16.396093 19.951005 24.770565 32.198617 44.325048 65.836536 116.718897
2025-02-16 15.147225 18.800310 23.946007 32.308681 47.096439 76.949837 168.949473
2025-02-23 14.042559 17.692205 22.986206 31.960549 48.928895 87.486516 247.259332
2025-03-02 13.233160 16.902210 22.371077 32.022866 51.537791 102.003449 419.752131
2025-03-09 12.487671 16.123187 21.660990 31.762623 53.395233 116.537922 810.734386
2025-03-16 11.849178 15.441863 21.018824 31.495552 55.157913 133.204831 2395.884601
2025-03-23 11.288701 14.830254 20.419153 31.196638 56.763028 152.126348 NaN
2025-03-30 10.823340 14.328135 19.947107 31.063237 58.776145 177.267038 NaN
2025-04-06 10.329386 13.745959 19.283372 30.435752 59.252384 196.425602 NaN
2025-04-13 10.178841 13.705199 19.562625 31.856284 66.482577 288.693744 NaN
2025-04-20 9.787162 13.248716 19.064128 31.509820 68.091750 347.912010 NaN
2025-04-27 9.485706 12.921136 18.769955 31.580929 71.266603 461.933824 NaN
2025-05-04 9.238466 12.667323 18.587763 31.883851 75.569175 686.897755 NaN
2025-05-11 8.982604 12.383454 18.324632 31.951905 79.100411 1070.010498 NaN
2025-05-18 8.697549 12.034810 17.911749 31.590310 80.698659 1602.465162 NaN
2025-05-25 8.478785 11.787694 17.675026 31.641365 84.335887 3678.643994 NaN
2025-06-01 8.242506 11.498756 17.336255 31.381303 86.423740 12615.738512 NaN
2025-06-08 8.021615 11.226318 17.011773 31.117103 88.454238 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 7.811858 10.964140 16.691034 30.822952 90.263902 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 7.630606 10.744129 16.440855 30.691607 93.060787 NaN NaN